Global Fastener News

The Fastener Distributor Index moderated in January, contracting m/m to 52 (vs. December 56.4). Sales trends were weaker vs. a very strong December, with the index at 51.6 compared to 58.7 last month. However, this reflected the seasonal adjustment factor as the percentage of respondents that indicated sales were above seasonal expectations was higher versus December (53% vs. 43% last month) as well as the 2025 average (40%).

Pricing increased for 44% of participants (vs. 49% last month) and 79% y/y (was 89% in December). Employment contributed to the expansion, as the share of participants saying employment was “lower than seasonal norms” decreased m/m (from 11% to 0%), though the overwhelming majority (79%) continue to say employment levels are in line.

Meanwhile, 21% of participants reported slower supplier lead times/deliveries this month (down slightly from 26% in December), though the majority (65%) continue to indicate similar levels. Customer inventory levels were also a benefit on this month’s performance (index drifted lower from 51.4 to 44.1) and could bode well for future growth, with 21% of participants now saying customer inventory levels are too low.

After moderating to 51.2 in December, the Forward Looking Index rose to 54 in January, reflecting lower customer inventories, higher employment levels, and a generally stable six-month outlook (for the third consecutive month). The six-month outlook was essentially stable sequentially, with 35% of respondents anticipating similar activity levels six months from now vs. today, 50% forecasting improvement, and only 15% foreseeing lower activity levels.

January sentiment reflects steadier demand with pockets of strength, tariff-driven pricing pressure becoming more visible as inventories clear, and an outlook that remains cautiously constructive despite ongoing policy-related noise.

Tariffs remain a dominant theme in commentary, particularly as inventories are worked through.

“Customers now feeling the full effect of tariffs as the market has broadly exhausted all inventories now. We can see customers now realizing the full cost increases of inputs.”

“Tariffs are also a huge impact on increasing prices,” another respondent added.

Frustration around policy uncertainty continues to run high.

“Have I mentioned the stupidity of tariffs recently? I wish SCOTUS would get off their collective backsides, and issue a ruling one way or another. Uncertainty is the worst.”

Operationally, tariffs are also influencing sourcing decisions.

“Business is steady. Tariffs remain an issue with various alternative for mitigation. GM directive on moving business from Taiwan will be an enormous and costly task.”

Elsewhere, OEM activity appears constructive but constrained.

“OEM’s are finding a path to more sales through mergers and acquisitions, but the production lead times are being pushed further and further out.”

The FDI is a monthly survey of North American fastener distributors conducted by the FCH Sourcing Network, the National Fastener Distributors Association and Baird.