Global Fastener News

The chance of a recession within the next year is “low,” Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics told the spring 2026 Pacific-West Fastener Association conference.

The current economic outlook is much the same as it was when Thornberg addressed Pac-West in March 2025. The outlook may be even be better: Consumer spending is at a  record level and interest rates are down, Thornberg pointed out. Credit is easier to get.

There is demand for housing construction and construction lending has increased, but a labor shortage throttles the market. In the past a labor shortage could be filled by immigrants, but 1.2 million immigrants are gone, Thornberg stated.

“Immigrants are necessary for jobs,” he said.

There is a difference between “what we think is happening in our economy – our social narrative or ‘lived experience’ and what is actually happening –  or objective statistical reality.

Good choices and smart policies start with the correct narrative, Thornberg said.

The new rising cost is insurance, which is outpacing inflation of 2.7%

Exports are doing fine, Thornberg said, noting the busy ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The U.S. is not a “trade dependent nation.”

Would foreign wars damage the economy? San Diego defense contractors are busy rebuilding, Thornberg noted.

Thornberg said surveys show 70% of Americans think their kids won’t have as “good a life” as they had. And the average American today “feels no better off.”

Thornberg summarized that the economy is growing and incomes are at a record high. Insufficient housing in California is “causing labor force contraction.”