Global Fastener News

2008 FIN – Peters: Fastener Industry Slated for Steady Growth

May 24
00:00 2013

Freedonia financial analyst Dean Peters told FIN he’s sticking to his forecast of 4.8% annual growth for the global fastener industry through 2012, despite the global financial crisis.

“I can’t deny that the potential is there, but I don’t think it substantively changes anything,” Peters noted during an interview with FIN.
He pointed to oil price fluctuations to demonstrate his point, saying the price of crude has dropped as the markets plummeted, but he said that could quickly rebound if the markets stabilize.
Freedonia’s World Industrial Fasteners report found that global fastener demand would top $66 billion by 2012.
“The jury is unfortunately out (on the financial markets), and it’s going to be a few months before we see if (the market has) reached the bottom.”
But Peters, who started his career as a metallurgist in the 1970s, remains optimistic.
“I really don’t think it will suffer in the long-term. I think the world is just going through a correction.”
Standard fasteners have undergone a bit of an inflationary up-tick as raw material costs have risen about 6-8% annually for the past few years. That could change in the coming months.
However, a reduction in inflation for aerospace fasteners is likely to be smaller as airlines experience a slowdown, Peters explained.
Starting in 2003, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, combined with increased commercial travel, produced an aerospace boom that’s now tapering off.
“Those two components don’t often happen at the same time,” Peters stated.
Peters said aerospace fastener manufacturers are unlikely to see production cuts related to Boeing Dreamliner’s composite construction, which drastically reduces the number of fasteners in the aircraft. He explained that the Airbus A380 employs a more conventional design approach, so an overall reduction in fasteners on each aircraft is unlikely over the next few years.
“I think it could be a wash,” Peters noted. “Most of what’s being replaced are blind rivets.”
In producing the report, Peters said Freedonia spends a great deal of time analyzing pricing indices for fasteners, along with forecasts on vehicle production, heavy machinery backlogs, and other factors, including growth drivers such as the Olympics.
Some of the biggest names in the fastener industry use the report internally to plan their growth strategy.
“What we can provide is an objective look at the industry,” Peters stated. “Most CEOs might not have in front of their minds that the Olympics are in London in 2012.” ©2008 ©2008/2013 Fastener Industry News.
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